Tourism is recognized to be the most dynamic industry contributing 9% of the international GDP in 2012 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2013). As a result the change in demand for tourism products affects all sectors of an economy (Stabler, Papatheodorou, & Sinclair, 2009). It is no surprise that various countries are interested in fostering development of tourism as a driving economic force. Last three years witnessed the positive dynamics in development of the inbound tourism in Ukraine. As a result of the 12% growth of the international arrivals in 2012 Ukraine was ranked 9 among the most visited countries in Europe with more than 23 m. visitors (World Tourism ...view middle of the document...
This study of tourism demand was conducted in order to answer the following research questions: what effect do the major macroeconomic variables have on tourist flow from European Union to Ukraine?
The current study was performed using first-handed data of national and international statistics institutions. The information on the international tourism arrivals to Ukraine was obtained from the Yearbooks (World Tourism Organization, 2006, 2011, 2013) and Highlights of World Tourism Organization (2013). The macroeconomic variables as gross national income, real income per capita were sourced from the official World Bank database (World Bank Group, n.d.-a, n.d.-b) and from the National Statistics Services of Poland (Central Statistical Office of Poland, 2013), Romania (National Institute of Statistics, 2013), Slovak Republic (Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic,
Estimating European Tourism Demand for Ukraine 4
n.d.), Hungary(Hungarian Central Statistical Office, 2013), Germany (Federal Statistical Office, 2013) and Ukraine (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, n.d.).
The study of European tourism demand for Ukraine was conducted with Box-Jenkins quantitative forecasting method (Box and Jenkins, 1976). For the initial creation of the database and further calculation of the variables we used Microsoft Office Excel © spreadsheet. The created database was processed with the SPSS © statistical software. The ordinary least squares (OLS) method was applied in order to estimate the demand trend for the past 10 years from 2003 to 2012
3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
3.1. Overview of Tourism Development in Ukraine
Ukraine is a young country that became independent after collapse of the USSR in 1991. Country’s great tourism potential is predetermined by unique geographical location and availability of various tourist zones from of the ski resorts in the Carpathians to the sandy beaches of the Black Sea (Voronin, 2012). Hosting 2 big European events: Eurovision 2005 and Euro 2012 raise the awareness about Ukraine as a tourist destination in Europe. In the beginning of 2013 Ukrainian vice-prime-minister A. Vilkul in his report stated that tourism is the focal point in Ukraine’s economic growth (Press Service of Vice-prime Minister, 2013). Tourism contributed 8% of the national GDP with average growth of 4% (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2013). The Travel & Tourism competitiveness report 2013 Ukraine outlines improved her ranking from the 85 place in 2011 to 76 in 2013 (Blanke, & Chiesa, 2013). In 2012 Ukraine accounted for 4.3% of the European tourist flows (World Tourism Organization, 2013). According to the information of the National Statistic Service of Ukraine 23.1 million of tourists have visited Ukraine in 2012 which is 54% more than in 2003(Figure 1)
Figure 1. International Tourist Arrivals to Ukraine 2003-2012 (State Statistics Service of Ukraine, 2013).